If population projections from the Office of Financial Management are accurate indicators, Island County could have 110,050 people by 2025.

John Coleman, Island County Planning and Development assistant planner, presented the population projections to the Island County Planning Commission Wednesday. The process for determining the likely county population over approximately the next two decades began in 2004 when the county presented OFM’s numbers to the commission.

The commission deliberated on the figures and decided on a compromise between the medium and high figures, or 110,050. The projections were then forwarded to cities and towns to enable personnel to incorporate the numbers into their population projections.

The jump from 77,261 people in 2005 to 110,050 in 2025 represents a 20-year increase of 32,789 people or 30 percent. The projections show the county’s population increasing by about 8,000 people every five years beginning in 2005.

“The data was broken down by regions, so we could fine-tune the projections and growth rates,” Coleman said.

Experts used two separate methods when crunching the numbers. The proportionate share method showed North Whidbey experiencing the most growth, the population increasing from 34,737 in 2000 to 49,523 in 2025. Central Whidbey would increase from 9,467 to 12,106; South Whidbey from 14,007 to 25,312; and Camano Island from 13,347 to 23,111. Employing the growth method, the numbers were within a similar range, slightly higher for the first two regions, but lower for the latter two.

Coupeville, because it is in the Ebey’s Landing Historical Reserve, is a unique town in that it does not need to accommodate growth or expand its urban growth area, Coleman said. The town projected a population of 2,165 for 2025, 165 more than it had projected for 2020 in the 1998 comprehensive plan.

As a result of the 2000 census information that yielded a smaller population than anticipated, Langley extended its projection from 2,200 for 2020 five years to 2025.

Oak Harbor was an entirely different beast. Examining the number of permits issued over the last five years, city staff projected the population at 30,419 in 2025, approximately 500 fewer than had been projected for the year 2020 in the 1998 comprehensive plan.

The city performed a “buildable lands analysis” that determined the current urban growth area could accommodate the projected housing need, but allowed for very little room for unforeseeable environmental constraints and market factors. The Growth Management Hearings Boards have found that 25 percent additional space is an acceptable amount. If a city wants to include substantially more than 25 percent additional space, the city would need to show good reason. Oak Harbor’s recent inclusion of 26.5 percent additional land in the UGA is on par with the state’s acceptable number.

Jeff Tate, Planning and Community Development assistant director, applauded the city for the undertaking, which was not required.

After concluding that additional land needed to be included in the UGA, the city solicited letters of interest from property owners wanting to have their property considered for inclusion in the UGA. The Comprehensive Plan Task Force recommended seven additions, which at the recommended density, will be able to handle 126.5 percent of the city’s projected growth through the year 2025.

With all of the numbers in, planning staff, with guidance from the Planning Commission, will incorporate the cities’ projections into the Island County Comprehensive Plan.

So when all those new people arrive over the next 20 years, Oak Harbor at least will be ready for them.