Going to the dump will be a lot more costly if Island County adopts a consultant’s pricing recommendations.

Based on demand and rising costs, a Colorado-based economic research firm with strong ties to Washington State has recommended that Island County increase its rates for the solid waste program.

The cost of disposing of the contents of a single garbage can at one of the county’s dumps, politely known as “recycle parks,” would jump to $10, up from the present $6.75, for example, which works out to a 48 percent increase.

The county has already alerted the city of Oak Harbor, a garbage customer, of plans to increase tipping fees by 23 percent. In response, the city is looking at increasing rates for residential pickup.

Lisa Skumatz of Skumatz Economic Research Associates in Superior, Colo., and Eastsound, Wash., presented the results of her solid waste and septage rate study to the Board of Island County Commissioners at a recent staff session.

The study entailed reviewing operations, plans, volume of all types of waste, as well as scrutinizing previous rate studies and budgets. Skumatz then employed a four-key analysis, focusing on the demand, revenue requirements, cost allocation, and the rate design.

“I did some ‘what ifs’ with county staff,” she said.

Transportation costs associated with the significant hike in fuel costs has been the most significant cost driver, responsible for over 60 percent of the cost increase, she said. Capital maintenance and the replacement of aging equipment were also identified as cost drivers, in addition to facilities modifications.

As volume has increased — from less than 20,000 tons collected in 1985 to nearly 60,000 tons last year — the number of employees has similarly been increased.

A system benchmarking study planned for 2007 will help identify best practices in the entire industry and determine where they may be applicable in the county. It will also make recommendations for possible inter-local agreements. A new long-haul provider will work to help keep costs down by assisting the county with load densification and access to equipment, Skumatz added.

On the brighter side, increased disposal costs could make a higher level curbside recycling program for Whidbey Island more viable. Waste Connections, the Whidbey franchised hauler parent company, is discussing possible system upgrades. With such a system, recycling costs for the county should become less expensive and may increase the number of households signing up for curbside service for garbage and recycled materials placed in a separate container. Waste Management, Inc. the Camano franchised hauler, will also be discussing curbside options for the island.

Commissioner John Dean, a Camano Island resident, said many people in the community relish the fellowship they find at the transfer station.

“On Camano, going to the transfer station is a social event and it would be hard to give up,” he said with a smile.

Skumatz’s study determined that a total of $20.7 million in revenue will be needed for the next three years. Municipal solid waste accounts for 80 percent of the allocated costs. She said the proposed rates were directly related to the cost of service.

The rates for 2007 through 2009 would see an increase across the board. People dropping off their trash at a transfer station would pay a minimum fee of $10 for one can or bundle, compared to the current $6.75 fee. Additional cans or bundles would be charged $3, a 50 cent increase. The cost for municipal would be raised from $89 to $110 per ton, and segregated yard debris would go from $60 to $76 a ton.

The county’s base fee, which is paid per vehicle and funds recycling and education-related programs, would be increased from $4.14 to $7.28 and is included in the minimum $10 fee. Special wastes would see a similar hike, but septage rates would remain static.

Bill Oakes, Island County Public Works director, told the commissioners that tonnage is increasing at all transfer stations. Solid waste costs at the present rates are causing a loss of over $100,000 a quarter, requiring the county to dip into the reserve.

“This will help us stop using the reserve,” Oakes said. “The rates are a prediction of future costs.”

Commissioner Mike Shelton said he preferred focusing on the items that can be controlled, capital outlays that can be anticipated. He felt it was more prudent to plan ahead in order to stabilize rates. Fuel costs are the wild card.

“I would rather see the rates go up gradually,” he said. Skumatz emphasized that the rate model extends out to 2014.

The commissioners set a public hearing for adoption of the fees for 10:15 a.m. on March 12 in the Commissioners’ Hearing Room in the Coupeville.