Imagine an unseasonably warm January on Whidbey Island. Schools have just returned from winter break, but suddenly they close. Movie theaters, churches, and public pools are ordered to close indefinitely. There is even serious talk of closing the island to anyone coming or going — by way of force if, necessary.

Sound farfetched? It could be a very real response to a deadly epidemic outbreak of avian flu, popularly known as the bird flu.

Avian influenza is an infection caused by avian influenza viruses. These influenza viruses occur naturally among birds. Wild birds worldwide carry the viruses in their intestines, but usually do not get sick from them. However, avian influenza is very contagious among birds and can make chickens, ducks, and turkeys, very sick and quickly kill them.

If the virus ever mutates enough to be easily transferred between humans, people worldwide could be in big trouble.

That’s why on March 15, Gov. Chris Gregoire signed into law legislation that directs each local health jurisdiction to develop a pandemic flu preparedness and response plan.

Island County does not yet have such a plan in place. However, it does have a good start toward complying with the governor’s order. For a few years the health department has been aware of the potential for a disease outbreak and its effects on Island County.

Dr. Roger Case, Island County Health Officer, believes a specific bird flu plan could be set in place by August of this year. “The rudiments of the plan are in place,” he said. “It’s evolving.”

A report on the Island County Health Department Web site, citing experience from past epidemics, predicts “somewhere between 19,000 to 22,000 islanders would become infected. Of those sick, there could be up to 2,500 deaths, but our current thinking is that 500 fatalities is a more realistic figure.”

But it could get even worse than that.

World Health Organization sources state that of the 184 known cases of humans having contracted avian flu worldwide, 103 have died from it. Using avian flu’s current pathology as an indicator and comparing it to the county health department’s hypothetical number of 19,000 potential infected people, then a full-blown epidemic could kill as many as 9,500 people on Whidbey Island.

As for the predictions of what would follow the beginning stages of an epidemic the health department report states, “Pandemics typically come in two to three waves of active infection. Each wave would last six to eight weeks and would be repeated after a period of little or no disease in the community.

“All schools, daycares, and public gathering spots will likely be closed for the duration of each wave. During each active phase of the pandemic, upwards of 30 percent of the workforce is likely to be staying home, either because they are sick, are taking care of someone who is, or are caring for children who are out of school.”

The report goes on to add, “Our ability to create a vaccine is improving, but for now, it seems unlikely that vaccines will be available for the first wave of disease.”

“It could be six months before we would have the vaccines” Case said.

Case recommends prevention as the key to prevention. “Hand-washing and masking are going to help stop the spread of infection,” he said.

If the bird flu hits, people will likely start wearing masks in public. Case recommends that the public stock “N95” masks that are available from pharmacies. He noted the masks work better to prevent an infected person from spreading the disease than to stop people from catching it.

Protection for health professionals is the first concern in a crisis. Island County has stockpiled enough face masks for its health staff, and recommends that each activity and home have their own supply of masks.

As of this moment, avian flu is not easily transmitted to people. The Center for Disease Control reports that “most cases of avian influenza infection in humans have resulted from contact with infected poultry or surfaces contaminated with secretion/excretions from infected birds. The spread of avian influenza viruses from one ill person to another has been reported very rarely, and transmission has not been observed to continue beyond one person.”

This could change, however, as viruses mutate in order to survive. Flu viruses have also adapted to become more resistant to antibiotics. Such mutations have led to untreatable cases in what we call the regular flu.

For now the health department is focused on education and preparing a comprehensive plan to deal with potential outbreaks of any kind.

“It’s important that the public has information on what they can do. Our primary focus is on increasing awareness first within public agencies, and then within the general public,” Case said.

Human infection of the avian flu has not occurred in the United States to date, but people worry about it.

“It’s scary stuff,” Katherine VandeWerfhorst, an Oak Harbor egg-seller, admits. “You hear about this bird flu and wonder when is it going to hit us.”

VandeWerfhorst adds with some skepticism, “Of course the media makes it sound like it’s the end of the world.”