Oak Harbor Republican Barbara Bailey spent the week swimming against the Democratic tide and by Friday morning her head was still above water.

After three days of seeing Democrat Tim Knue nipping at her toes, Bailey finished the week with a lead of 172 votes for the District 10, Position 2 seat in the state House of Representatives. She had 16,388 votes while Knue had 16,216.

That may not seem like a lot, but it was Bailey’s biggest lead of the week. The morning after Tuesday’s election she was ahead by only five votes in the district that includes all of Island County and parts of Skagit and Snohomish counties.

By Thursday morning Bailey’s lead had increased to 28 votes, but that afternoon it plummeted. In fact, the Secretary of State’s office had Knue ahead by 17 votes at one point.

But as county auditors worked to count as many votes as they could before taking their Veterans Day holiday on Friday, Bailey regained the lead, oozing to the 172 vote advantage posted at 11:19 p.m. Thursday.

“We got a real bump last night,” Bailey said Friday morning before heading out with her husband Butch to “unplant” her campaign signs.

Bailey wasn’t claiming victory but she saw reason for optimism. “I’m never comfortable until we get the final vote,” she said. “But it’s likely to continue on the trend that’s started. I’ll be watching the numbers pretty close on Monday.”

Bailey has slightly outpolled Knue in Island and Snohomish counties, while he holds the advantage in his home county of Skagit.

Knue, who is making his first run at public office after a career as an agriculture teacher, described the vote count as “kind of a yo-yo.” While emphasizing it’s “all conjecture,” on Friday he believed he still had a chance to regain the lead.

“With the number of votes still out there that would seem reasonable,” he said. Island County still has about 9,000 votes to count, and Bailey and Knue agreed the other counties probably have a similar number left.

“It’s hard to keep track of three counties,” Bailey noted.

Bailey won with 58 percent of the vote two years ago, but found her run for a third term more difficult. Knue and his supporters hammered away at her pro-business voting record and she found herself on the defensive at times. Knue was no doubt helped by the national trend that put the Democrats back in charge of both houses of the U.S. Congress, and the state trend that increased the Democratic majority in both houses in Olympia.

“I had a strong opponent but I do believe the situation on a national level did spill over quite a bit into all the state races,” Bailey said.

Knue wasn’t so sure how much he was helped by the voting trends. “If it was a national sweep it should have been a lot easier than this,” he said, “but I took on a very entrenched Republican district.”

Knue attributed his gains to his emphasis on healthcare and his opposition to the property tax initiative, I-933, which failed in all three counties. Bailey supported the initiative.

Knue said a recount is possible but it’s undecided at this point. “We’ll look to see what the numbers look like in the end,” he said.